Here’s my early, quick takes on this year’s American Idol. My friend Mike Gillberg is going to be squawking in as well. I’m surprised that I’m as engaged by this season. It’s not Lopez or Tyler, since they added little and certainly add little at this stage. There actually seems to be a bit more talent than in the last few seasons, for whatever reason. My picks are based on my own opinions, but I’m more interested in the demographics of voting, which is often the best indication of winning there is. If we look back at results, we see that “the best” — or most marketable — seldom wins. Demographics do, which is how we end up with some boring winners, like the last three seasons. (David Cook did one good song and I don’t think Lee DeWyze did that many, but the demographics …) These are in order of how I believe they will finish — lowest here is first out.

James Durbin: Durbin is the “acceptable Lambert.” This isn’t a thing about Durbin being (apparently) straight or Lambert being gay. This is just about how they come off. Durbin is the nice kid with a funny haircut. He’s got the wife and kid and the nearly homeless story. It’s a boxing story more than it’s an Idol one, but he can milk it, Nickie McKibbin style if he had to. Thing is, he doesn’t. He might not have the range and he certainly doesn’t have the showmanship of Lambert, but he’s definitely the class of this year’s crop. He’s likeable, especially compared to everyone else, won’t seem to get theme-bleeped, and doesn’t seem prone to the kind of lapse that could create a surprise exit. He’s my pick to win, a la David Cook.

Casey Abrams: Abrams is great, but … what is he? He’s young but looks much older. He’s cuddly, if not sexy, which makes him safe enough, though he’s hardly going to move in the Archuleta/Allen demographics. Joe Cocker doesn’t scare the Jonas Brothers. He’s jazzy, he’s classic, he’s … see, this is the problem. By being versatile, I have a hard time figuring out how to place him. Could he be on the radio? If so, what would he be singing? There’s not a really good comp here and quirky doesn’t win. I do think he’s likeable enough and talented enough to stay out of the bottom for the early shows. He could be hurt by a big push from Jacob or Stefano, or if his health acts up again. (Timo Seppa couldn’t come up with a good comp either, but suggested Jordin Sparks, who won despite having no comps as well. It’s the best one I’ve heard.)

Pia Toscano: This is an easy one. She’s Katherine McPhee with a bit of ethnicity. She’s got a big voice that should carry her, and I don’t think she’ll get theme-bleeped by anything. She’s pretty, which is only good if she can come of very unaware of it, the way McPhee did. There’s a “mean girls” voting block that doesn’t like pretty girls — which is why Idol didn’t put Julie Zorillo through. Despite her talent and model looks, she wouldn’t have made it past tonight’s vote just on this block. The judges could have an affect here — if Tyler pervs out a bit too much or if Lopez compliments her looks as much as her singing, there could be voting backlash. If I flip-flopped Lauren Alaina to the #3 slot, I wouldn’t feel bad.

Jacob Lusk: Lusk is a bit of an odd duck here. He’s neither Luther Vandross nor R. Kelly. He’s not cuddly enough to be Ruben Studdard. He’s not gay enough to capture that voting block (and again, I don’t care a bit about whether he is or isn’t gay.) He’s got a huge range, doesn’t seem uncomfortable at all, but he does seem to have that one gear. He might wear out. (It’d be awesome if he could pull of a James Brown “I can’t go on … I have to go on!” trick. It’d be even better if he got Paul Shaffer involved.) His Antony Johnson vibrato is going to be a bit odd at some point and when the competition gets very narrow, he probably doesn’t have the voting block to move on. That said, he’s also the most likely to have the “moment” song of this top five and that alone could carry him to a win.

Lauren Alaina: The easy comps have been made. She’s a bit Kelly Clarkson and a bit Carrie Underwood. That said, she’s not nearly as good as either. She got overwhelmed by a Shania Twain song, for cripe’s sake. She won’t get theme-bleeped the way Scotty will, since she can go to the Faith Hill mode if need be. She’s cute enough, likeable enough, and good enough to be one of the last girls standing. She’s also very young and I think she’ll hit a wall about midway through, the way most young contestants have. I think that leads to a bad performance that gets her pushed at the 4-6 mark.

Stefano Langone: He’s in the sweet spot of several demographics and will get a big boost from the heart of Idol’s best demographics, teenage girls. He’s talented enough that he shouldn’t melt down in the first few weeks and has a nice backstory in case he does. (Yes, it counts for a lot when people are voting.) Online voting might shift Stefano more than anyone - up since he’s from Seattle, down if it shifts the demographic older and more male. This seems a bit high to me, but he could end up doing something like Elliot Yamin.

Thia Megia: She’s good enough to go about mid-way, but she’s a pure comp for Jasmine Trias and I don’t feel like Megia’s as good. I also think that the visual comp to Charice (now semi-famous from Glee) won’t help.  The new age limit throws off some of the comps and the fact that there’s several young ones screws up the blocks. I think at this stage, she (or Lauren or any of the younger ones) is likely to hit a wall. The week after week singing, the pressure, the outside demands … it wears them down and they tend to make that one mistake. I think Lauren’s slightly more talented, a bit more unique, and is more memorable, which is why Thia’s just midpack. I think she’ll be likeable enough to escape a couple bottom three’s, but that will only add to her stress level.

Naima Adedapo: Dreads. Big tattoos. Reggae toasts. She’s going to be a bit scary to a certain demographic, which limits her potential. Her version of “Umbrella” was interesting in that she planned out a dance, something I really can’t remember any contestant doing before. It’s more like X Factor in that way and something that I do think will get her votes. She’s memorable enough to get some votes, but she’s also could have one of those blow-up performances somewhere along the lines. I’m not sure how the “urban vote” splits this year but her ability to rap helps her over the Whitney/Diana vibe that has to carry Ashthon. The upside here is a Fantasia moment that carries her further up.

Scotty McCreery: He’s the purest country voice Idol’s had, but while he does his best to come off humble and good ol’ boy, he comes off as really cocky somehow when on stage. He gets that look, cocks his right shoulder up, and gives the camera a look that might have worked on 13 year old girls in Carolina. I said last night that while he’s not going to win, I’d probably put my bet on him for the person that will sell the most records out of this group. Since there’s no perfect comp, we have to look at people that were very genre-specific from the past and worry that he’s going to get theme-bleeped. Something like disco week would do him in. Oddly, I think Kellie Pickler might be a solid comp here. Southern guys do tend to do well, but none have been this single-genre.

Ashthon Jones: Who was that girl who got voted out early and created the “judge’s save”? I forget her name, though she did some stuff. (And is there a save this year?) Jones is that girl, but forgettable. She’s attractive, has a nice voice, seems to lack some confidence, and is likely to have that one bad performance that will knock her out a bit earlier than her talent should allow. (Oh, it’s Tamyra Gray who I’m thinking of. See, you probably didn’t remember either.)

Paul McDonald: McDonald doesn’t have a really good comp, which the judges keep playing up. He’s his own dude, wearing the Jeff Tweedy outfits, singing Alt Country tunes with his Ray LaMontagne voice. He’s really good, I think, and I’d like to hear him do more in the Adams-Bingham-Tweedy continuum, but he won’t get far here. The weird little wobbly dance is enough to cost him some votes. The upside play is Taylor Hicks, but I don’t think America will make that mistake again.

Haley Reinhart: Emphasizing that you’re young doesn’t help and that’s all doing a LeAnn Rimes song will do. She’s not the only young girl, not the best young girl, so aside from the fact that yes, she does have a nice voice, she’s kind of forgettable. She could sneak up a couple places, but I don’t see many people thinking “I have to vote for this girl.” She’s hardly as cloying as someone like Haely Vaughn from last season, but there’s not much to carry her deep into the competition.

Karen Rodriguez: Karen seems to think that winning over Jennifer Lopez will win her the competition. No dice. She was just bad enough on the opening show that she’ll likely be the one to go first. You can’t do a song that most don’t know, glam yourself up, and then not crush it. It wasn’t any of the things she needed it to be. There’s no good comps here that get her much higher even if she survives this. The only situation where she wins is where she matches head to head each week with Pia and outsings her, which isn’t going to happen.